When UBS upgraded Voestalpine from neutral to buy on November 17, 2025, it sent ripples through the European steel industry like a rock thrown into a calm pond. The investment bank didn’t just nudge their rating upward—they launched it like a rocket, boosting their price target from EUR 26.00 to EUR 43.00. That’s the kind of jump that makes investors sit up and pay attention.
The excitement stems from upcoming EU steel quota cuts that promise to shake up the industry. These quotas will reduce hot-rolled coil steel production, creating tighter supplies across Europe. UBS believes this supply squeeze will push steel prices to between €700-€750 per ton, which is great news for companies like Voestalpine that produce high-quality steel.
Think of it like musical chairs—when there are fewer chairs (less steel supply), the remaining players become more valuable. The EU’s quota system aims to favor producers making cleaner, low-carbon steel as part of Europe’s green transition goals. Voestalpine fits this description perfectly with their focus on environmentally friendly steel production.
Fewer steel producers means higher value for the survivors, especially those embracing Europe’s green steel revolution.
The market responded enthusiastically to UBS’s upgrade. Voestalpine’s stock hit a 52-week high of $8.17 on November 18, just one day after the announcement.
Even more telling, short interest in the company dropped by an eye-popping 98.58%, suggesting that investors who were betting against the stock quickly changed their minds.
Other major banks are singing similar tunes. Deutsche Bank maintains a buy rating with a EUR 40.00 price target, while Morgan Stanley keeps an overweight rating around EUR 30.20.
This chorus of positive analyst voices creates what Wall Street calls a “moderate buy” consensus. With a consensus rating score of 2.60, Voestalpine sits slightly above the basic materials sector average of 2.59.
Voestalpine’s recent financial performance supports this optimism. The company reported revenues of €15.7 billion in fiscal 2024/25, with analysts forecasting earnings growth of about 24.44% over the next year. The company’s operating cash flows doubled to €783 million, demonstrating strong financial momentum alongside their strategic transformation efforts.
Their strategic shift toward green steel production and technology innovations positions them well for the changing regulatory landscape. Just as forex traders use leverage to control larger positions with smaller capital, the EU quotas effectively leverage Voestalpine’s competitive advantages in premium steel production to maximize market positioning.
As EU quotas reshape competitive dynamics, Voestalpine appears ready to benefit from reduced competition and higher margins in their premium steel products.
