When will the world stop depending so heavily on oil, coal, and gas? According to the International Energy Agency, global demand for these fossil fuels is expected to peak by 2030. This sounds like great news for fighting climate change, but the reality is more complicated than it appears.
The projected peak comes from exciting changes happening around us. Electric cars are multiplying rapidly, with numbers expected to grow nearly ten times by 2030. In the United States, half of all new car sales could be electric by then, compared to just 12% recently. Meanwhile, China’s economy is shifting toward cleaner energy sources, which reduces their massive appetite for coal and oil.
However, this peak doesn’t mean fossil fuel use will disappear quickly. Think of it like reaching the top of a hill—you stop climbing up, but you might walk along the flat top for a while before going down. The fossil fuel industry, represented by OPEC, believes oil demand will actually increase after 2030 and wants trillions of dollars invested in new projects.
Reaching peak fossil fuel demand is like climbing a hill—you might plateau at the top before descending.
The numbers reveal why climate scientists remain worried. Even with peak demand by 2030, fossil fuel use will still be too high to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, as promised in the Paris Agreement. The power sector will use only 2% less fossil fuel in 2030 than it did in 2023, which isn’t nearly enough progress.
Rising electricity demand creates additional pressure. Global electricity use is growing 4.5% this year alone, driven by everything from electric buses to air conditioning to data centers powering our digital lives. Emerging economies need more energy as they develop, making the transition even more challenging. Developing economies are expected to increase fossil fuel consumption, even as advanced economies reduce their usage. For investors, the energy transition requires long-term patience rather than expecting rapid overnight changes in the global economy.
Clean energy investment is breaking records at $2.2 trillion in 2025, and renewable energy capacity is expanding rapidly. Solar power deployment is particularly impressive, helping close the gap toward tripling renewable capacity by 2030. These investments create millions of new jobs in electric vehicles, solar energy, and power grids, though some traditional energy jobs will disappear. Half of all economies are now transitioning away from fossil fuels in their power sectors, representing significant global progress.
While fossil fuel demand may peak soon, the decline afterward will determine whether humanity can avoid the worst climate impacts.
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