US Energy Secretary Chris Wright believes Venezuela could pump substantially more oil in 2026, forecasting a jump of 30 to 40 percent over current levels. This increase would add between 300,000 and 400,000 barrels per day to global markets. Wright shared his prediction during an International Energy Agency meeting in Paris, linking the expected growth to recent US licenses granted to Western oil companies.
Venezuela’s oil production has already shown signs of recovery. The country now produces close to 1 million barrels per day, a remarkable comeback from its 2020 low of just 544,522 barrels daily. Production had fallen by half since 2017 when US financial sanctions took effect.
Recent gains came from Iranian technical assistance and naphtha supplies that helped reverse earlier cuts.
The Trump administration issued new licenses to major companies including Chevron, Vitol, and Trafigura. An expanded general license now allows more firms to transport and sell Venezuelan oil. These authorizations help clear storage buildup at Caribbean terminals, with most oil heading to US Gulf Coast refineries. The policies support the interim government led by Delcy Rodriguez following Nicolás Maduro’s capture.
Officials believe Venezuela could return to pre-blockade production levels by mid-2026 through these expanded licenses. However, serious infrastructure problems remain. Energy expert Francisco Monaldi estimates the country needs $100 billion over the next decade to rebuild corroded facilities. Some projections reach $250 billion for returning to pre-1999 production capacity.
The forecast arrives as global oil markets face pressure from oversupply. Analysts predict Brent crude will average $57.69 per barrel in 2026 before dropping to $53 in 2027. US production is expected to hit a record 13.60 million barrels daily in 2026. World crude output stands at 107.8 million barrels per day and continues growing faster than demand through 2027.
Despite infrastructure challenges, enormous interest exists among companies seeking entry into Venezuela’s oil sector. The country could reemerge as a major producer if investments materialize and licenses expand further. Monetary policy shifts can also influence oil markets through interest rates and exchange rates, affecting investment and demand.
