Why do sugar prices seem to bounce around like a pinball machine lately? The sweet commodity has been on quite a roller coaster ride, climbing 4.88% over the past month to reach 15.17 dollars per pound by late November 2025. Yet despite this recent surge, prices still sit nearly 30% lower than they were a year ago.
Sugar prices are ping-ponging wildly, surging nearly 5% this month while still trading 30% below last year’s levels.
The sugar market is experiencing something economists call a plot twist. While experts predicted a supply glut of nearly 2 million tons for 2025-26, prices are defying gravity and climbing anyway. It’s like having too many cookies at a bake sale but somehow the price keeps going up.
Global sugar production is expected to jump 3.15% to 181.77 million tons, far outpacing consumption growth of just 0.6%. Brazil and India, the world’s sugar powerhouses, are both cranking out impressive harvests.
India’s crop has bounced back strong, while Brazil’s Center-South region reported increased output through October. India may export only 1.5 million tons in 2025/26, falling short of the initial 2 million ton forecast as the country considers prioritizing ethanol production over sugar exports.
So why aren’t prices falling like a rock? The answer lies in the details. Brazil’s late-season production faces uncertainty due to excessive rainfall that could force mills to shut down early, leaving sugar cane uncrushed in the fields.
Meanwhile, currency movements are stirring the pot. A stronger U.S. dollar makes sugar more expensive for international buyers, even as it pressures producer profits in emerging markets. When central banks adjust interest rates, they can influence exchange rates and international commodity flows, adding another layer of complexity to global sugar pricing dynamics.
Weather continues to play spoiler in this sugar story. While improved conditions in Brazil initially pushed prices down, the threat of drought and excessive rainfall keeps traders on edge. It’s like planning a picnic when the weather forecast keeps changing.
The International Sugar Organization shifted from predicting a 2.916 million ton deficit last season to forecasting a 1.63 million ton surplus this year. But markets rarely move in straight lines. The global sugar market is heavily distorted by government subsidies, leading to unpredictable volatility that can quickly negate fundamental price signals. Currency fluctuations, weather worries, and timing uncertainties are proving that even when supply looks abundant on paper, real-world factors can keep prices dancing to their own unpredictable rhythm.
